Gordon Clown .Com

This week the Circus is in town and the new Ringmaster opened proceedings today with a predictable speech, going down like meat in a butcher’s shop. Familiar promises on issues from education to the economy were trotted out, to an audiance of virtually unanimous favour. In a familiar mixture of magic, illusion and religion, Gordon set out a safe-bet plan which demonstrated that very little is likely to change under his leadership, and that the mistakes of the past have not been learned from and are highly liable to be repeated, let alone corrected. Fiddled figures on unemployment, recently pulled apart in the press, were bare facedly reiterated for the umpteenth time.

It has not been the best of times recently for Gordon, since the happy events of a few weeks ago that saw his predecessor virtually decapitated by his own party. Today’s speech may have gone some way to repairing the damage of press comments of the past few days, but how permanent the patching-up exercise will prove is yet to be seen. The press swipes continued this weekend with particularly savage poll ratings reported in the Scotsman:

A Populus poll for the BBC yesterday showed that 60 per cent of people think Mr Brown has failed to make himself appear more “likeable, charismatic and in touch with ordinary people” over the course of the last year, compared to 33 per cent who said his image had improved.

Even more interestingly, the Observer carried the results of a poll in which voters have demonstrated that they are apparently so unhappy with the succession of Gordon Brown over Tony Blair, that they wish for an instant general election to be conducted to allow them to demonstrate their mistrust and dislike of Brown and his party:

A new opinion poll reveals 56 per cent of the public want the chance to have their say on the new leader of the Labour party, whoever it is, within the first six months. Voters are not content to leave the question of the next Prime Minister to the party and want him or her to earn the right to govern. The GFK/NOP poll found huge support for a genuine leadership battle rather than a coronation, with 81 per cent supporting a contest.

In an article that spans no less than seven pages in its online form, the Telegraph rips Gordon’s past record to shreds and reveals what switched-on observers will already no doubt be aware of, the fact that Gordon’s management of Britain’s finances has made the situations of most people worse overall:

In 1997, this “tax burden” stood at 37.3 per cent of national income (GDP). It has now reached 39.7 per cent and, on the Treasury’s own figures, will top 41 per cent in 2010.

In 2002, Brown unveiled a £8bn increase in National Insurance – a tax rise in all but name. He has also made an art form of “fiscal drag” – raising thresholds only in line with prices, which go up slower than earnings, so dragging more and more people into higher tax brackets.

This “stealth tax” technique has, in particular, hit the middle classes. There are now more than 4m top-rate taxpayers in the UK – up from 2.1m in 1997. So, increasing numbers of not-all-that-rich people are paying tax at 40 per cent.

Lastly, in a welcome diversion to the collapsing credibility surrounding Brown, the Independant runs a brief glimpse into the mind of Ed Balls, Gordon’s economic advisor and potential candidate to succeed him as Chancellor. Sadly though, as is often the case with these interviews, the questions posed by the general public are far more telling than the non-answers offered by the interviewee.

Recent political events make it look very likely that Gordon will get his greatest wish within the next 12 months and accede to the throne of Number 10 Downing Street. Like most new Prime Ministers before him, Gordon will doubtless be expecting the privilege of a honeymoon period, in which the press lays off their customary day-by-day attacks on the incumbent PM for at least a few months while he gets his feet under the desk.

Evidence is steadily mounting, however, that this may not be the case for Gordon. In fact, now that it appears that the toppling of Blair is fully complete, the press seem to have already declared open season on our dear chancellor, racing to get the early punches in to soften him up. This recent Observer article, for example, can be summed up with the following verdicts on Gordon’s performance:

Tax and benefits: Good if you are on a low income or have children. Bad if you are on a high income or are childless.

Homes and Inheritance: Bad for homeowners, who are not necessarily used to buying tax advice, but whose property values are dragging them into the IHT net.

Pensions: Generally disastrous.

Meanwhile the chances of Gordon reuniting a divided Labour party, and sweeping under the carpet his record as chancellor are looking slim. The following are the latest Betfair odds for Gordon to be worried about:

Betfair Odds for Gordon as Next Labour Leader: 1.45 (slightly lengthened from 1.42).
Betfair Odds for Next General Election: Labour 2.22 (lengthened from 2.1), Conservatives 1.83 (shortened from 1.93).

The outlook for our friends across the pond appears to be looking bleaker by the day, as an economy fed by rampant house price inflation on a scale never seen before, and subsequent mortgage equity withdrawl, looks to be heading into reverse at a very rapid pace. What is surprising is not that the US housing market has popped after 17 consecutive rate rises by the Federal Reserve, but that the rapid U-turn in sentiment has been so widely reported by the British press, who have been well known to keep any bearish housing market stories under wraps in their bid to sell papers. Some commentators are drawing sinister conclusions as to what may be in store for the American people in general, should their recession prove particularly bad. Still, I suppose just because it is happening in America, that shouldn’t affect Britain in any way, should it?

Gordon is certainly hoping so. Against all the odds, perhaps the oft-used proverb that when “America sneezes, the world catches a cold” will not apply to us this time. This is clearly highly unlikely. The prospect of a deep recession in America is highly likely to send the economies of various overheated debt-laden nations, not least Britain, into sharp reverse as well. It does seem, based on this recent statistic-laden article, that debt in Brown’s Britain continues to rampantly charge onward and upward, making the recent 0.25% interest rate rise look rather woeful and pathetic, with surely more to follow. The press, of course, not wishing to be the bearer of bad news, will likely seek to deny this fact as long as possible, and instead continue with the time honoured tradition of only reporting certain economic downturns well after the story is already old. Can Gordon reach Number 10 before Britain begins to show the symptoms of America’s economic strife? If not, surely Blair will lay the blame firmly at Number 11, and it will be goodbye Gordon.